Mariners looking at the most important day of their season

James Paxton will take the hill on a day that will go a long way toward defining the Mariners' season. (AP)

The Mariners are staring at the most important day of their 2014 season. Sitting at 83-72, Seattle invades Toronto today trailing the Royals (84-70) by 1.5 games for the second wild-card and the Athletics (85-70) by two games for the first.

Pitching has been the backbone of the Mariners’ success this season. Their 3.12 staff ERA is the best in the American League. They also boast the best rotation ERA in the AL at 3.42. However, their rotation has fallen on hard times. Hisashi Iwakuma has a 9.12 ERA in his past six starts. Roenis Elias may not throw another pitch this season. Chris Young had been marvelously consistent until the calendar turned to September.

Young’s month-by-month ERA:

• April: 3.04
• May: 3.40
• June: 2.89
• July: 3.29
• August: 3.05
• September: 8.59

The rocks of the rotation in the final month of the season have been Felix Hernandez and James Paxton. Felix owns a sparkling a 0.96 ERA in September. He has only allowed three earned runs in 28 innings while fanning 31 hitters. James Paxton’s ERA sits at 2.01 in the nine games since returning from the disabled list in early August.

Paxton takes the hill today, which represents a golden opportunity for the Mariners to capture a badly-needed win against a Jays team that has dropped seven of its past eight games. It would be a precious half game the Mariners need to grab.

Additionally, there is another full game in play today. The Royals will finish a suspended game with the Indians later this afternoon. Cleveland leads the game 4-2 heading into the bottom of the 10th inning. The Mariners are just three outs away from claiming a half game on the Royals. Furthermore, after the completing of the suspended game, the Royals and Indians will square off in their regularly-scheduled affair.

Cleveland will turn to Carlos Carrasco, who is fresh off of a complete-game, two-hit shutout of the Astros. Since moving back into the rotation in mid-August he boasts a 1.17 ERA in eight starts. He has struck out 59 hitters while holding opponents to a .174 batting average against.

Meanwhile, the Royals will turn to Danny Duffy to counter the cruising Carrasco. The hard-throwing lefty has been excellent this season, but he only threw one pitch in his last start on Sept. 6 against the Yankees before leaving with shoulder issues. It’s hard to know exactly what Kansas City will get from Duffy tonight.

Here are the scenarios:

• M’s win and Royals lose twice: tie
• M’s win and Royals split: 1 game back
• M’s lose and Royals split: 2 games back
• M’s lose and Royals win twice: 3 games back

After today there will be just six games remaining this season. The math starts to dramatically work against the Mariners if they continue to trail after today.

If the Mariners are three games back at the end of the day, they would need to finish the season undefeated just to tie the Royals if Kansas City goes .500. Time is running out to make up games and this is the last opportunity to swing the situation by a game and a half. The Mariners must take advantage.