Will Seahawks’ running game be enough to beat Packers with a flawed secondary?

The Seahawks may again use Richard Sherman to cover the slot, this time to slow down Randall Cobb. (AP)

First of all, I blew it with the first-ever “Smoking Jim Moore Lock of the Week” last week, incorrectly picking the “under” in the Seahawks-Rams game.

I thought the two teams would combine to score under 41 points, and they scored 65 instead, which made the lock of the week as wrong as it could be.

So this week, I wanted to feed all of my pertinent stats into Dave Wyman’s data base, but he was too busy figuring out meaningless toxic differentials, which caused me to make this week’s lock of the week off the top of my head.

The over-under in the Seattle-Green Bay game is 49, and that’s pretty high for an NFL game – it almost encourages you to take the under, especially when the game features a typically good Seahawks’ defense.

But they weren’t typically good last week in a 34-31 loss to St. Louis. You know why. Kam Chancellor’s absence hurts the Legion of Boom. I don’t even know if you can call them the Legion of Boom anymore. You’ve still got two original members in Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman, but at least one of the new guys, rookie Dion Bailey, had a rough go of it against the Rams, and the other new guy, Cary Williams, is a veteran who was burned by three sizable pass plays.

The Seahawks are so concerned about the flaws in their secondary that they’ve been trying to use Sherman inside, a tactic that might be used again Sunday night since Randall Cobb was the NFL’s best slot receiver last year.

That means that DeShawn Shead or Tharold Simon would take over for Sherman at left cornerback. It’s a debatable tradeoff – you’re hoping Sherman will make a smooth transition to the inside. That should be the case given his athletic ability, but it’s not a given. And while you’re trying that out, you weaken your coverage on the left side of the field, where Sherman is so dominant that Rodgers didn’t even throw his way in the season opener last year.

But Seahawks Insider Danny O’Neil told me he doesn’t think the Seahawks will use Sherman that much on the inside against Green Bay because of a toe injury to Simon that has turned him into a game-time decision. When you’re a game-time decision, you’re probably not going to play. And if you do play, you’re not close to being 100 percent.

Shead would be more of a downgrade from Sherman than Simon, so maybe we’ll see more of Marcus Burley covering slot receivers. I know this, that’s more in-depth than I thought I’d get with the Seahawks’ secondary when I sat down to write this, so enough of that, I’ll leave the X’s and O’s to The Professor, and yes, the T is capitalized in The Professor because there are no other professors like John Clayton.

Whatever strategy the Seahawks use in their secondary, they need to get a better pass rush than they had in St. Louis, recording only two sacks. The loss of starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga to a sprained knee should help. I don’t even care if they sack Aaron Rodgers as long as they get a persistent rush on him and bother him with hurries and hits.

Kris Richard likes to blitz more than previous defensive coordinators, but he should dial it down this week or at least picks his spots wisely – I heard a stat this week about Rodgers’ brilliance when blitzed. It’s hard to fool elite quarterbacks.

The key for Seattle, and it’s more important in this game than others, is to win time of possession and limit Rodgers’ opportunities by running the ball effectively. Chances are, they will – Matt Forte rushed for 141 yards against Green Bay last Sunday in Chicago, and Marshawn Lynch should run for more than 100. Jimmy Graham will help with third-down conversions, keeping the clock and the Seahawks moving.

O’Neil and Wyman downplay the incentive factor in this game, but I think it’s big for the Packers after losing three games in Seattle, including the NFC Championship when they coughed it up in almost comical fashion.

But I still think the Seahawks are good enough to overcome that emotional intangible and the home field based on two statistical facts:

• 1) Pete Carroll’s Seahawks are 13-1 in prime-time games.

• 2) The Seahawks are 17-4 in their last 21 games against the spread as underdogs, and Green Bay is favored by 3 ½ points.

In the “Smoking Jim Moore Lock of the Week,” take the “over” in this game because a lot of points are going to be scored with a Green Bay defense that’s weak against the run, which is Seattle’s strength, and a Seattle defense that’s suddenly susceptible to the pass, Green Bay’s strength.

I like the Seahawks to win it on a Steven Hauschka field goal, and as an added bonus prediction, expect Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman to be interviewed on national TV by Michele Tafoya after the game.

Line: Green Bay by 3 ½
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Packers 28
Season record against the spread: 1-0

The Go 2 Guy also writes for SeattlePI.com and KitsapSun.com. You can reach Jim at jimmoorethego2guy@yahoo.com and follow him on Twitter @cougsgo.