Without Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks need to turn to passing vs. Bengals

Jim Moore believes tight end Jimmy Graham could have his biggest game for Seattle yet on Sunday. (AP)

Around 1 or 1:15 Sunday afternoon, the Seahawks will leave the field in Cincinnati after beating the Bengals. Some, such as Danny O’Neil and Dave Wyman, will be surprised. They think the Bengals are going to win.

Oddsmakers do, too, making Cincinnati a 3-point favorite for many good reasons. The Bengals are 4-0 and averaging 30 points a game. They have also covered the spread in 15 of their last 19 home games.

And it makes sense for the Seahawks to be underdogs, playing without Marshawn Lynch and coming in with a 2-2 record after what could have been a loss to the winless Lions last Monday night.

Think about that for a second – if officials had penalized K.J. Wright for batting the ball out of the end zone and if Detroit had scored from the half-yard line, the Seahawks might be 1-3 and looking at the possibility of going 1-4 this week and 1-5 next week after playing the unbeaten Panthers at CenturyLink Field.

To be honest, when you look at all of the tangible factors, Cincinnati has the superior team right now. Andy Dalton appears to have dramatically improved – his 123 quarterback rating is third only to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers this season, and he leads the league averaging 10.23 yards per pass attempt.

The Seahawks limp in with battered running backs and a subpar offensive line. Russell Wilson has been sacked 18 times and figures to go down again and again on Sunday.

But I still think the Seahawks will beat the Bengals. For a change, the Seahawks won’t be a run-first team in this game. The Bengals rank 27th in pass defense, and coupled with the Seahawks’ shortage of healthy running backs, I’m thinking Wilson will air it out more than usual and find open receivers downfield. I’m also expecting Jimmy Graham to have his biggest game of the year.

Flip it around, how many times have you seen good offenses stifled by good defenses? Happens all the time in baseball. Happened Thursday night when the Huskies shut down Cody Kessler and the Trojans. Seriously, do you really think Dalton and the Bengals are going to have as much success against the Seahawks’ defense as they’ve had against the Raiders, Chargers, Ravens and Chiefs? I don’t either.

Here’s the intangible I like the most – how many times have the Bengals been in a big game? Compare that to the Seahawks. And when the Bengals had those big games, they’ve blown it, going 0-4 in the playoffs the last four years.

The Seahawks have been in games like these many times in the past three years. Sure, they haven’t come through in some of those spots, but more often than not, they do. And even when they don’t, they’re right there ’til the end, with a chance to win.

I like the Seahawks when people doubt them. And the numbers back it up – in their last 22 games as underdogs, they’re 17-5 against the spread.

I’m so convinced that I’m making the Seahawks +3 the Smokin’ Jim Moore Lock of the Week.

Line: Bengals by 3.
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Bengals 20
Season record against the spread: 2-2

The Go 2 Guy also writes for SeattlePI.com and KitsapSun.com. You can reach Jim at jimmoorethego2guy@yahoo.com and follow him on Twitter @cougsgo.