Danny O’Neil’s Week-12 NFL picks: How the Seahawks can win twice

Seattle can’t lose when Atlanta hosts Minnesota on Sunday morning.

Those are two of the teams the Seahawks are chasing in pursuit of a wild-card berth. A Minnesota victory would put Atlanta at 6-5 and give Seattle a chance to climb into a tie if the Seahawks then beat Pittsburgh. On the other hand, a Falcons victory would drop the Vikings to 7-4 before they host Seattle on Dec. 6. Either way, Seattle gets helped.

Let’s look at the league’s entire holiday schedule:

Philadelphia at Detroit

There’s been too much turnover in Philadelphia. That’s true for a roster that appears to have gotten worse when coach Chip Kelly swapped out LeSean McCoy for DeMarco Murray at running back. It’s also true on the field for the Eagles, whose 20 turnovers are tied for third-most of any team in the league. Of course, Detroit is one of two teams to commit more turnovers than Philadelphia, but the Lions have won three of their past five games despite scoring more than 20 points only once in that span.

Pick: Lions 20, Eagles 19

Carolina at Dallas

If the Cowboys come back to make the playoffs, should Tony Romo be the NFL’s MVP? He is undefeated as a starting quarterback this season, and while the Panthers are undefeated, this is a particularly difficult matchup for them. Carolina has forced 25 turnovers, most of any team in the league. Dallas has forced only seven turnovers, fewest of any team. If Dallas wins the turnover battle, the Cowboys are going to hand the Panthers their first loss of the season.

Pick: Cowboys 33, Panthers 30

Chicago at Green Bay

If the tryptophan doesn’t have you sleeping by the time Thursday evening rolls around then this matchup might. The Packers have won 10 of the past 11 in this series, and if the Bears lost at home to Denver’s Brock Osweiler on Sunday, imagine what’s going to happen on the road against Aaron Rodgers.

Pick: Packers 27, Bears 16

Oakland at Tennessee

Instead of betting the over-under, can you bet ugly? Because this would be the game to do it. The Raiders have scored fewer than 20 points in each of the past two weeks. So have the Titans, but that’s not exactly a surprise. Tennessee has scored fewer than 20 points in seven of its 10 games this season. You’d think that Tennessee would have the advantage playing at home, but the Titans are 0-5 in Nashville this season and 2-3 on the road.

Pick: Raiders 23, Titans 17

Buffalo at Kansas City

There are five teams that are 5-5 in the AFC, and chances are one of those teams will make the playoffs this season. Of those five teams, the Chiefs have the best point differential. Not only that, but Buffalo is playing on the road just six days after playing at New England on Monday night.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Bills 16

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis

Should we really consider the Colts to be at a disadvantage while playing a backup quarterback? Because Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as a starter this year while Andrew Luck – who’s out with a lacerated kidney – is 2-5. And while Tampa Bay is 5-5 and everyone is starting to take the Bucs seriously, this is about that time that we usually start talking about the rookie wall. Can Jameis Winston break through it?

Pick: Colts 23, Bucs 20

New York Giants at Washington

The Giants have a turnover margin of plus-12, second-best in the league behind Carolina. But while Carolina is 10-0, the Giants are 5-5, which means this is a team being kept afloat by an unsustainable turnover margin. The fact the Giants are the only team in the league allowing more than 300 yards passing per game says way more about this team’s trajectory than anything else. Not even the NFC East is bad enough to get these Giants in the playoffs.

Pick: Epithets 34, Giants 30

New Orleans at Houston

The Texans have won three in a row and four of their past five. In fact, they’re so hot they couldn’t even lose when they started T.J. Yates, and now they host a Saints that is allowing a league-high 31.5 points. You know what they say when it sounds too good to be true? Well, the Texans aren’t too good.

Pick: Saints 27, Texans 24

Minnesota at Atlanta

The Vikings were one of the hottest teams in the league until they lost at home to Green Bay last week. Meanwhile, the Falcons have lost three in a row, tied with St. Louis for longest active losing streak in the NFC. If you’re looking for the key to this game, look down. At the ground. Atlanta is allowing a league-low 87.4 yards rushing per game. The Vikings rank No. 3 in rushing offense at 141.9.

Pick: Falcons 27, Vikings 17

St. Louis at Cincinnati

These are two teams in the midst of skids, the Rams having lost three in a row while the Bengals have lost back-to-back games. Of course, the difference is that Cincinnati won eight straight to start the season. Rams rookie Todd Gurley rushed for more than 125 yards in each of his first four starts, and had a run of more than 40 yards in each of those four games. He has gained an average of 70 yards on the ground in the past three games and doesn’t have a run longer than 16 yards in that time.

Pick: Bengals 24, Rams 19

San Diego at Jacksonville

It’s not a surprise that this game features one of the teams that’s tied for the worst record in the AFC. The surprise is that team is the Chargers, who are 2-8, and not the Jaguars, who are 4-6 and have already matched their most victories in any of the previous three years. San Diego is allowing the most points of any team in the AFC at 28.2 per game. That should help a Jacksonville team that has scored 25 or more points in only two of 10 games this season.

Pick: Chargers 24, Jaguars 20

Miami at New York Jets

The Dolphins are playing on the road for the seventh time in 11 games, which sounds like a huge challenge. But actually, road games haven’t been the problem for Miami, which is 1-3 at home this season. The Jets won four of their first five games, but they’ve now lost four of their last five, meaning they haven’t found middle ground at 5-5 so much as they’ve fallen to it.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 20

Arizona at San Francisco

No offense, but this one is lopsided because, well, because the 49ers have no offense. San Francisco is averaging 13.9 points, fewest in the league. In fact, the 49ers have a chance at diving below Kansas City’s low-water mark for scoring over the previous three seasons, which was 13.2 per game. And if San Francisco gets really unambitious, it can dip below the 12.1 points the Rams averaged in 2011. Don’t underestimate the inability of this 49ers offense. Meanwhile, Arizona is scoring the most points in the league at 33.6 per game. The only real question is whether the Cardinals will score more points in the first quarter than San Francisco manages in four of them.

Pick: Cardinals 31, 49ers 17

Pittsburgh at Seattle

The secondary that has been considered Seattle’s strength is actually the biggest concern heading into this game. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging more than 300 yards passing in the six games he has played this season, and Antonio Brown leads the league with 89 receptions. He’s on pace to catch 142 passes, which is an improvement on his league-leading total of 129 receptions last year. Will Seattle stick Richard Sherman on Brown?

Pick: Seahawks 34, Steelers 31

New England at Denver

New England is averaging a league-high 320.4 yards passing while the Broncos allow a league-low 190.6 yards passing. But it’s not the test of those two strengths that will decide this game so much as the Broncos’ unavoidable weakness at quarterback. Osweiler is going to stick out like a sore thumb, and not just because he’s 6 feet 7.

Pick: Patriots 20, Broncos 12

Baltimore at Cleveland

The Ravens will be missing Joe Flacco (knee) while the Browns will be without Johnny Manziel (irresponsible). But while Baltimore brings in Matt Schaub, the Browns will actually upgrade their chances with Luke McCown.

Pick: Browns 17, Ravens 13