Special teams could be deciding factor in Washington State’s huge game vs. No. 8 Stanford

In addition to being one of the Pac-12's best running backs, Christian McCaffrey is a standout return man for the eighth-ranked Stanford Cardinal. (AP)

Saturday night at Martin Stadium, the Cougars could put themselves in a position to win the Pac-12 North and play in the conference championship game. Then, in this if-they-beat-Stanford scenario and go on to become the Pac-12 North champs, the Cougs would have a reasonably good chance to beat Utah, USC, UCLA or Arizona State in the conference title game.

I know a lot has to happen Saturday night and in the next four games against ASU, UCLA, Colorado and Washington, and there’s a better chance of finishing with a 7-5 or 6-6 record than 10-2 or 9-3, but still… Washington State appears to be good enough to put all of the positives in play.

Maybe the Cougs will get their doors blown off by a top-10 team on Halloween – since losing to Northwestern in its season opener, Stanford has beaten every opponent by an average of 17 points. It’s why they’re favored by 10 ½ points over the Cougs.

So this post could look absolutely crazy around 11 o’clock Saturday night. But it’s a home game, and I wouldn’t be as encouraged if the Cougars didn’t have a running game and a defense. But they do. Even if they run for only 50 yards against the Cardinal, I like that we are at least a threat to run on any given down now. Stanford has to be aware of that and it should create passing opportunities downfield to Gabe Marks, Dom Williams and River Cracraft.

Is Stanford’s secondary athletic enough to keep up with those receivers? Statistically, it says they are – Stanford is second in the conference in pass defense, but have the Cardinal faced a passing offense like this? Luke Falk is averaging 412 passing yards a game.

And the defense… I know we’re not great on that side of the ball, but we’re not terrible anymore either. Kevin Hogan and Christian McCaffrey will do some damage – and McCaffrey figures to do a lot of damage – but I don’t think Stanford will stampede its way down the field all night long. The Cougar defense will get some stops.

Here’s how I size it up – our offense is better than theirs, but their defense is better than ours, so call that a push. What will be the difference in the game? Special teams. Stanford has a game-breaker in McCaffrey, who is No. 1 in the Pac-12 in kickoff returns, averaging 29 yards. Washington State is last in the conference in kickoff coverage. The combination leads me to believe that McCaffrey will break a long one – and hopefully not two – Saturday night.

Continuing a long, disturbing trend, it’s not just problems on kickoffs – you never know with the Cougs when they punt or do anything else involving special teams. For two years running, they’ve had the worst special teams in the country. I may be exaggerating by saying that – maybe Kansas or some other team has worse special-teams play – but some sort of Cougar buffoonery happens every single week, to the point that I just hope for only one screw-up per game and call it a good effort as long as we don’t see two gaffes or more.

You can’t all of a sudden expect it not to happen Saturday night when it’s been happening all season long, particularly with a guy like McCaffrey and wet weather in the forecast.

As much as I hope the Cougars will keep that Pac-12 championship fantasy alive, Stanford will escape with a hard-fought win.

Line: Stanford by 10 ½
Prediction: Cardinal 34, Cougars 28
Season record against the spread: 4-2-1

The Go 2 Guy also writes for SeattlePI.com and the Kitsap Sun. You can reach Jim at jimmoorethego2guy@yahoo.com and follow him on Twitter @cougsgo.